Learn to Play Craps – Here are some tips and strategies and a guide to Variance in Craps

• Low Variance Craps Strategy Examples
• Low Variance Craps Strategy Definition
• Low Variance Craps Strategy For Dummies
• Low Variance Craps Strategy Rules

If the casino has such an advantage over the player, why on Earth does anyone play the game? My guess is that most people don’t have a clue they’re playing a losing game. Others are so arrogant they think they can outplay the casino and turn a negative expectation into a positive, even over the long term.

A distribution with high variance is more 'spread out' than one with low variance. The mathematical concept known as The Law of Large Numbers holds that the longer you play the tighter the distribution becomes so that an infinitely long session has only one possible result: the value of the mean. Advanced Craps Topics. Analysis and advice for experienced players who have mastered basic strategy, and are looking to add an extra edge to their game. Calculation of the player's edge for all the major bets in craps. House edge for all the major craps bets. Dice Setting Expectations for the Dice Setter.

Others know they’ll lose, but play anyway for fun and excitement. As a knowledgeable player, why should you even bother playing a game you know will beat you? As a knowledgeable player, is there any hope you can walk away a winner, at least once in a while, even though you’re at a statistical disadvantage?

You can’t win a predetermined game

Craps is a game of numbers and statistics, with the house having a built-in advantage. Since craps is based on statistics, let’s find a way to use statistics to our advantage. You’ll never beat the casino over the long haul, but you can, indeed, beat it in the moments of time when the distribution hiccups and things go your way.

Let’s talk about “variance,” which is the average squared deviation of each number from the mean of a data set. Huh? Don’t worry; we don’t need a Harvard math degree to understand this. It’s simply a measure of how spread out the data is. Let’s consider the familiar coin-flip example.

Suppose we flip a coin 10,000 times. We expect heads to appear about 5,000 times and tails to appear about 5,000 times. Suppose we bet $1 on heads for each flip. If these are even-money bets, we expect to break even–or close to it after those 10,000 flips. As illustrated in one of my other articles, the house doesn’t give us even money when it loses. In our coin-flip example, instead of paying us $1 for each loss, suppose they pay us only $0.96. With this built-in house advantage, our negative expectation is to lose about $200 after 10,000 flips. Here’s the math. If we expect about 5,000 heads and about 5,000 tails to appear, then we expect to lose 5000 x $1 = $5000; and win 5000 x $0.96 = $4800. $5000 – $4800 = $200. This is called “negative expectation.”

Now, of those 10,000 flips, suppose we focus on only 30 of them, and we continue betting on heads. Of those 30 flips, we might see heads 25 times and tails only 5 times. This data fluctuation shows that, for a limited number of flips over a short period of time, we can get lucky and experience Nirvana where things go our way. I call it a “Nirvana hiccup” in the distribution that causes a relatively high variance. In this example of only 30 flips, we win $24 for the 25 heads (i.e., 25 x $0.96 = $24), and lose $5 for the 5 tails (i.e., 5 x $1 = $5), which gives us a net win of $19. This short term variance temporarily removes the long-term negative expectation, which means there are, indeed, times when we can walk away a winner.

Variance, the reasons casinos and craps flourishes

Although you’ll lose in the long-term, there are times when you’ll win because of variance. Suppose you take a three day vacation in Vegas once a year and play four one hour craps sessions each day (i.e., a total of 12 hours for the trip). You could conceivably get extremely lucky and hit that Nirvana hiccup during each session, and then go home a big winner. In that case, you go home thinking you’re a genius, a craps god, invincible, a world-class gambling stud. Yeah, sure, okay. I don’t recommend quitting your day job.

Now, suppose you’re a Vegas local who plays an hour every day after work. In this case, it’s clear that whatever few Nirvana hiccups you experience will be properly adjusted over time such that you’ll lose your shirt in the long-term.

Therefore, the infrequent craps player can, indeed, consistently win if she’s lucky enough to hit those Nirvana hiccups. However, the frequent long term player has no chance of coming out a winner at the end of his craps life. Part of the secret to craps is knowing how to be around for those occasional Nirvana hiccups where the dice fall your way.

Low Variance Craps Strategy Examples

If you don’t want to lose your shirt, you must learn the secret to craps. Don’t fall for bogus winning systems or ridiculous dice-setting claims. Distribution variance is the only thing that makes you a short-term winner. Nothing else. No silly dice setting technique. No bogus winning system. It’s the distribution variance and nothing else. Got it? Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

Now you know!

Since craps is a negative expectation game, you are destined to lose. And the longer you play the more you will lose. So what are you getting at? And what are you selling?

I have nothing to sell. I am seeking guidance and discussion about reduced variance betting strategies in a manner which I hope will minimize controversy and off-topic posts.

If you play craps to have fun and try to win money, then variance is your friend. If you have other goals, however...

I don't know about the rest of you but when I gamble, I totally hate myself and try to lose all of the money as fast as I can so that I don't have to gamble anymore.A gazillion years ago I came up with a better (lower-edge) hedge than the typical don't + place system. For a $10 3/4/5x table, do this:
$10 pass
$55 don't pass
Take odds as follows:
4 or 10, $30 for a guaranteed win of $15

Low Variance Craps Strategy Definition

5 or 9, $36 for a guaranteed win of $9
6 or 8, $40 for a win of either $3 or $5.
You could also bet 10 pass, 65 don't and take full odds. That wins 5 on every winner and a larger amount on sevens, which might be preferable due to the come out exposure of 7, 11. A long hand just wins 5 per roll, and many established numbers helps you recover a bit from the eventual 7-out.
Do this on every roll with come bets.
But with the terms you cited, you should figure out if the iron cross plus a 7 hedge isn't better. No time now tho.
Edit: I think this is the answer you were looking for...
150 do, 150 don't, 5 midnight. Guarantees you at least 30k in handle with no more than $500 loss for 500 prize win.

I have nothing to sell. I am seeking guidance and discussion about reduced variance betting strategies in a manner which I hope will minimize controversy and off-topic posts.

All this and you just joined the forums today...you should PM 98Steps!

So what betting strategy (or strategies) will maximize your expected prize money?

Low Variance Craps Strategy For Dummies

Can the gambler decide when the session or sessions begin and end? That is no small question.I don't know about the rest of you but when I gamble, I totally hate myself and try to lose all of the money as fast as I can so that I don't have to gamble anymore.
Actually, I suspect that is true, at least subconsciously, or many who gamble regularly.
No better place to reinforce a deep-seated sense of self-loathing than in a casino.

Low Variance Craps Strategy Rules

A gazillion years ago I came up with a better (lower-edge) hedge than the typical don't + place system. For a $10 3/4/5x table, do this:
$10 pass
$55 don't pass
Take odds as follows:
4 or 10, $30 for a guaranteed win of $15
5 or 9, $36 for a guaranteed win of $9
6 or 8, $40 for a win of either $3 or $5.
You could also bet 10 pass, 65 don't and take full odds. That wins 5 on every winner and a larger amount on sevens, which might be preferable due to the come out exposure of 7, 11. A long hand just wins 5 per roll, and many established numbers helps you recover a bit from the eventual 7-out.
Do this on every roll with come bets.
But with the terms you cited, you should figure out if the iron cross plus a 7 hedge isn't better. No time now tho.
Edit: I think this is the answer you were looking for...
150 do, 150 don't, 5 midnight. Guarantees you at least 30k in handle with no more than $500 loss for 500 prize win.

If I understand correctly, you have suggested three strategies which involve making simultaneous Pass and Don't Pass bets on come out rolls? And your first two strategies including taking odds only on your Pass bet? What does '5 midnight' mean?
I believe your strategies fail to maximize the expected prize money largely because the house edge of your bets is far from minimized. I think the simple strategy of betting $10 on both Pass and Don't Pass and then taking/laying maximum odds when a point is established would be optimal. Do you agree?
Potential drawbacks of this strategy in a real live casino craps game would probably include ridicule, hostility, and embarrassment! So let's introduce one more condition: simultaneous Pass Line and Don't Pass bets are prohibited (as well as simultaneous Come and Don't Come bets). With this new condition, what strategies would be optimal?